Oh that’s right, I made a bunch of way over-the-top predictions at the end of 2009 for the MN Media Market in 2010. They were pretty aggressive, and not much happened this year, so I’m guessing they were all wrong. Let’s check:
Prediction! MPR drops the Q from their NewsQ branding effort, goes back to being regular MPR News.
Well that one came true, but that was a gimme.
Prediction! By the end of the year, two or three reporters at out-state Minnesota media outlets start blogs that out-perform their publications (and the blogs get monetized!).
Hmmmm… Can someone help me check this? Probably didn’t happen, but I’m really into the twitter streams of several individual out-state reporters who are doing great work.
Prediction! A third of news outlets in the state cut back on their full AP contract or back out of it entirely.
Super aggressive, but this shoe is going to for sure drop, maybe even this year.
Prediction! Minnpost gets mentioned on the Nieman Journalism Lab at least three times, but also runs out of money and “reorganizes” to much fewer staff.
Minnpost did get their mentions, of course, but they’ve actually been hiring more staff (good moves by giving Sparber more space to write and hiring Kaeti Hinck) and expanding offices, so more wrong than right on that one.
Prediction! Under their new publisher, Mike Sweeney, the STrib undergoes a major digital overhaul — they relaunch their website with a new layout, hire at least a dozen more digital staff, try to produce more multi-media, and drop at least 3 days of delivery — but miss out on the fundamentals of the web and ends the year at -30% operating expenses or more and puts their downtown land back on the auction block.
Well, this was also super aggressive, but there were a bunch of digital hires throughout the year and there are rumblings of a big redesign happening in early 2011 (those could also just be rumblings). The finances eased up a bit in post-bankrupcy, there’s still delivery, and we’ll see what happens with the metrodome situation. So, mostly wrong… or just a year too early?
Prediction! Village Voice higher-ups realize they can’t keep up with print costs, but can’t make it on CPM advertising alone, so they either sell or close City Pages.
The smart prediction would’ve been for the shrinkage, which happened, but City Pages hasn’t been sold or closed. So, wrong.
Prediction! MSP Communications announces it will “begin to phase out” MSP Magazine.
Nope. This was a pot-odds prediction, but it didn’t hit. Don’t be surprised if it happens this year, though.
Prediction! This is a big one – one of the local TV stations will stop doing news broadcasts before the year is over.
Nope. Another pot-odds prediction.
Prediction! Traffic to local mobile sites doubles while local sales of mobile increase 10-25% because it won’t be until 3Q of 2011 that the surviving outlets figure out how to sell mobile.
Can someone also help me with this one?
Prediction! LOL/OMG becomes the next big thing.
SPOT. ON.
Wow. I did a lot better than I would’ve guessed. I’ll have a beer or two today and do my 2011 picks, stay tuned.
This is a reblog so I remember to buy Mediation a beer. Why? Because he was wrong about MinnPost in his predictions, and that’s worth celebrating.
I remember reading that prediction when he posted it, and my reaction was honestly, “Who knows what will happen?” MinnPost was doing well, but we couldn’t take anything for granted. It’s a tough gig in the world of journalism these days.
Well, today I can say we made it through the recession, membership is growing, we’re hiring, we’re expanding into bigger office space, and ad sales are picking up. Like I said, it’s worth celebrating!
But we’re still not taking anything for granted.